Fantasy Tri Minute, 5/29

While the firestorm from my last post dies down (331 visitors on one day? going pro has never had that kind of traffic or controversy) I'll get back to my usual dorky/niche-y posting about FantasyTri. There are four races this week, and you only get $50,000 in your budget, so I'm going to pick 8 athletes (one man and woman per race), which means an average of $6250 per pick. The start lists are a little hard to come by, but here's what I've found.

Xterra Italy (European Championships) picks in BOLD

RenataBucher		F	Switzerland		Pro/Elite
			Sibylle Matter		F	Switzerland	Pro/Elite
			Myriam Guillot		F	France	Pro/Elite
			Marion Lorblanchet		F	France	Pro/Elite
			Maud Golsteyn		F	Netherlands	Pro/Elite
			Claudia Hossmann		F	Switzerland	Pro/Elite
			Monica Gabbanelli		F	Italy	Pro/Elite
			Sara Tavecchio		F	Italy	Pro/Elite
			Melanie McQuaid		F	Canada	Pro/Elite
			Claudia Walser		F	Germany	Pro/Elite
			Jacqui Slack		F	United Kingdom	Pro/Elite
			Ilaria Zavanone		F	Italy	Pro/Elite
			Carina Wasle		F	Austria	Pro/Elite
			Emma Ruth Smith		F	United Kingdom	Pro/Elite
			Darrelle Parker		F	United Kingdom	Pro/Elite
			Giuliana Lamastra		F	Italy	Pro/Elite
			Franky Batelier		M	France	Pro/Elite
			Jim Thijs		M	Belgium	Pro/Elite
			Yeray Luxem		M	Belgium	Pro/Elite
			Felix Schumann		M	Germany	Pro/Elite
			Lars Van Der Eerden		M	Netherlands	Pro/Elite
			Olivier Marceau		M	Switzerland	Pro/Elite
			Luca Molteni		M	Italy	Pro/Elite
			Tom Curtis		M	United Kingdom	Pro/Elite
			Graham Wadsworth		M	United Kingdom	Pro/Elite
			Homes Llewellyn		M	United Kingdom	Pro/Elite
			Jean Marc Cattori		M	Switzerland	Pro/Elite
			Fabio Guidelli		M	Italy	Pro/Elite
			Carl Pasio		M	South Africa	Pro/Elite
			Fabrizio Baralla		M	Italy	Pro/Elite
			Alessio Picco		M	Italy	Pro/Elite
			Ronny Dietz		M	Germany	Pro/Elite
			Ole Vinnergaard		M	Denmark	Pro/Elite
			Ricard Calmet Calveras		M	Spain	Pro/Elite
			Jens Buder		M	Germany	Pro/Elite
			Karel Zadak		M	Czech Republic	Pro/Elite
			Gianpietro De Faveri		M	Italy	Pro/Elite
			Nico Pfitzenmaier		M	Germany	Pro/Elite
			Julian Langer		M	Austria	Pro/Elite
			Sam Gardner		M	United Kingdom	Pro/Elite
			Lieuwe Boonstra		M	South Africa	Pro/Elite
			Nicolas Lebrun		M	France	Pro/Elite
			Borja Conde		M	Spain	Pro/Elite

Ironman Brazil

No start list yet for IM Brazil (c'mon WTC!), but I'm picking two-time defending champ Eduardo Sturla ($6700) over longtime vet Oscar Galindez. As for the women, I'm going with two-time IM Champion (last year!) Tereza Macel (a remarkable affordable $5900).

Austria 70.3

Men: Michael Weiss (he's fast from his MTB background and he's got a taste for victory after being the first Austrian to win an IM; he's competing on home soil and costs less then $6000)
Women: Erika Csomor (haven't heard a lot from her in the past few years, but she's fast and knows how to win—expensive at $7500)

TriGrandPrix UK

This is a new race, kicking off a two race series of half-iron distance races that will grow to five next year. The other race is in the Basque country of Spain (hills, anyone?). They've attracted quite a field, and I'm going with Paul Ambrose, who got me some points in Florida a few weeks ago. On the girls' side I'm taking...Leanda Cave. Hard to pick against her in this relatively shallow field. She'll be battling Yvonne Van Vlerken for the win, I think.

Fantasy Tri Minute 5/13—Men.

Only one race this coming weekend, but the field listed for Florida 70.3 is an interesting one. Here are the two start lists (separated by gender—why can't WTC do at least that for its website users?).

Men

Rich Allen—Racing, on the comeback trail, 14th at Knoxville and St. Anthony's. Longshot to get you points. Bargain at $2133, though.
Paul Ambrose—Racing, another relative bargain at just over $5000. He's a steady performer at 70.3 distance. He's probably a good choice.
Dirk Bockel—Racing, but expensive at $7100.
Daniel Bretscher—Not sure if he's racing; website didn't say, but he's cheap at $3900 or so. Probably a good pick.
Mike Caiazzo (NOT RACING)
Andres Castillo Latorre—He's got similar results to me, but only costs $250. If you're looking for a longshot but with some value, he might not be bad (I beat him by a couple of places in Austin last year).
Richie Cunningham—Racing. Richie's expensive, but he'll usually get inside the top five. He's a good stallion to pick for your stable. I'm going to play him this weekend.
Scott Duffy—Couldn't figure out who this person is. Nor does he have a FantasyTri listing.
Stephen Dyke—Canadian bloke, it seems. A few north-of-the-border results. Cheap.
Paul Fritzsche—Paul is just a great guy and a super-strong cyclist. His blog says he's competing, but I think this field might just be too strong for him to get into the top ten. He's good value, though, at just under $3000.
Ryan Giuliano—Part of the US Pro Tri team. Looks like a young pro. No FT listing.
Leon Griffin—Leon is a stud, but his website doesn't mention Florida...
Andrew Hodges—Website mentions nothing about Florida...I got burned by playing Andrew a few weeks ago, so I'm gonna steer clear.
David Kahn—Second year pro. No listing on FT or on his blog.
Stephen Kilshaw—Won Shawnigan Lake 1/2 IM last year, and he's only $25o. Could be a good sleeper.
Greg Kopecky—Also only $250. Young, though.
Reinaldo Oliveira—A few results. Probably pack-fill.
Kyle Pawlaczyk—13th at New Orleans 70.3. Might get you some points if you can spell his name. Only $250.
Bryan Rhodes—His website doesn't mention Florida. Coming back from injury. A little expensive, especially since we're not sure he's competing.
Daniel Schmoll—Who?
TJ Tollakson—Buy! Buy! Pretty cheap. Hungry. Fit. Only $4100.
Nicholas Vandam—Young ITU pro. Florida 70.3 is probably a little too hilly on the bike for him right now.
Matt White—His blog doesn't say anything. Sounds like he's going back to Boulder to get ready for CdA.
Maxim Kriat—Long course guy, had some success. Cheap. You might think about it. Only $2400.
Alun Woodward—I don't know who this is, but he's expensive ($5500). ITU guy?
Viktor Zyemtsev—Still classy after all these years. Won Louisville last year and just came in 10th at St. Anthony's. Not too expensive ($4700) and likely to get you some points.

Here's my team:

Cunningham, Tollakson, Ambrose, Pawlaczyk, Kilshaw.

Here's the women's start list. I'll do them tomorrow.

Women

Leanda Cave
Florence Chretien
Jacqui Gordon
Lisa Huetthaler
Heather Jackson
Tamara Kozulina
Nina Kraft
Heather Leiggi
Emma-Kate Lidbury
Kim Loeffler
Sara McLarty
Kate Pallardy
Ayesha Rollinson
Daniela Saemmler
David Sharratt
Amanda Stevens
Danielle Sullivan
Pip Taylor
Magali Tisseyre
Kelly Williamson

Fantasy Tri Minute, 4/9

I'm definitely an addictive game player. Once, a few years ago, I cultivated a nasty competitive two-person Scrabble habit. Scrabble Tim and I were banging out countless game of timed two-person tournament scrabble (each player get a total of 25 minutes, in the whole game, to make his plays—you use a chess clock to track how much time you've got left, and every minute you go over subtracts 10 points from your total; it is a cruel, cruel mistress). I am what you might call an "extreme adaptor." This fact makes sense. One doesn't become a professional athlete in a niche sport because one thinks it's a good or cool idea; one does it because one's nature kinda demands it. I've heard good writers talk about this fact, too. Lots of people want to be writers, and they struggle with the commitment that trade requires. Good writers can't help writing. It is, as the lovely Stanley Kunitz (RIP) pointed out, "something libidinous."

I love games, and I love games in which there's something at stake (this means I have to stay away from gambling for real money). I once neglected my summertime job to manage a fantasy baseball team simply because I was minding the team for a friend who was away from computer access for six weeks—I couldn't deal with the possibility that he might return to find his team in last place. Soon I was buying Baseball Weekly and obsessively canvassing ESPN for "fantasy bargains," which sound like something scumbags look for in Las Vegas. I stay away from the major sport fantasy games mostly because I love things like cycling, triathlon, tennis, and running, and most of those don't have a viable fantasy contingent.

I blogged about Fantasy Tri last fall, and they seem to be getting a lot of the bugs out. Along with Fantasy Cyclocross (Possible? you say—yes) I now have an outlet for my two favorite sports. So you should all go and sign up, and here I'm going to do some handicapping with the field for Sunday's first ITU Dextro World Championship Series. This is the first big race of the year (the World Cup races kicked off last month in Mooloolaba; the ITU has a confusing system in which "World Cups" are less important than the "World Championship Series;" it's kinda like if the NFL had a couple of championships, one called the Superbowl and another called the Superballs—you would have no idea which was more important unless you lived within the system for a while, like Cannondale's crazy frame naming system) and many of the short-course triathlon world gliterati will be racing. I'm going to try to handicap the top ten prospects of each start list, but remember my system for handicapping is entirely unscientific. Fantasy Tri's system relies upon "salaries" assigned to each athlete depending on how accomplished they are. For each race you're given a certain amount of money, and then you can "hire" athletes for your team. You get to choose the athletes, but their total salary can't exceed the money you've got (everyone starts with the same money). You score depending on what place the athletes come in, so it's probably more valuable to pick 2nd place, 3rd, and 5th rather than picking the winner and, say, 7th place.

N.B. Home course advantage, I've discovered, does not exist, unless you are Australian and male. But even that statistical hiccup has an explanation and a big caveat: there are proportionally more Australian ITU athletes than any other nation, and they flock to their home events. At Mooloolaba 2010 Australian men made up 31% of the field and they took home 50% of the top ten spots. When the competition heats up, however, home advantage fades away. At the Gold Coast WCS (Pop Quiz: which series is that? Figure it out, do it now!) last year 9% of the field were Australian and 10% of the the top ten. Australia is one of the "have" countries in terms of triathlon, so you gotta figure that there's a good amount of parity at the most competitive races. So, if you're thinking of stacking your team with Australians, you might want to think twice.

MEN

Jan Frodeno (GER)—$5588. A pretty good bargain at this price. Frodeno didn't finish outside of the top ten last season. At 14% of my budget (the budget this week is $40000) I'm taking him. Figure 7/1 for him to win, and 4/5 for him to get inside the top fifteen. YES.

Laurent Vidal (FRA)—$5322. Another really strong choice, although I didn't take him. Another "not outside the top ten" from last year (except a bizarre 26th finish at the ETU Europe Championships, which had a pretty deep field). You've got to love his dancing. He's got a win under his belt but isn't quite at the level of Frodeno, Kahlefeldt, et al. 9/1 for the win, and 5/4 for a top 15. YES.

Kris Gemmel (NZL)—$6872?! A bit overrated here, I think. Ranked 8th in the world and seems to bring it for big races. Still, you're blowing a big part of your budget, here (17%). 5/1 for the win, although he doesn't really win very often..10/9 to finish in the top fifteen. NO.

Dmitry Polyansky (RUS)—$4374. Not too much cash, but other than one big win (he got Tiszaujvaros last year) he doesn't have too much under his belt. 15/1 for the win, 5/3 to finish in the top fifteen. I'm not taking him. NO,

Jarrod Shoemaker (USA)—$5322. Great bargain. He won Hamburg last year and he's really learned how to run with the big guys. 7/1 for the win. I'd take him. YES.

Alexander Brukhankov (RUS)—$5463. More expensive than Shoemaker with a much, much less illustrious record. Don't do it. 20/1 for the win. NO.

Brad Kahlefeldt (AUS)—He's the man, I'd say, even at $7543. After a great win at Mooloolaba I think he's ready to storm the season again. 2/1 for the win. 5/5 for the top fifteen. YES.

Bevan Docherty (NZL)—Who doesn't like Bevan Docherty? But at $7388 he's WAY overpriced. Might be a bit long in the tooth these days...Still, he can really pop one when he wants to. 18/1 for the win. 10/7 for a top 15. NO.

Simon Whitfield (CAN)—Another bargain at $5911. Three wins last year and one of them was at Hy-Vee against one of the best fields, well, ever. Simon is one of the most competitive guys I know and he really, really loves his daughter. Why would you bet against that? 6/1 for the win. 10/9 for a top fifteen. YES.

David Hauss (FRA)—Huge bargain. Hauss scored me points a few weeks ago, and at $3083 it would be hard not to take him. He won't win, but he will get you some points. 30/1 for the win, 10/7 for a top fifteen. YES.

I realize that's six yeses and you can only have five athletes of each gender per team. So. Who are you going to leave out? Who did I leave on?

See you at the races—women's handicapping coming tomorrow.